JUSTPATH South Africa: Mpumalanga Just Transition Pathways

Background:

South Africa’s coal-dependent energy system underpins severe socio-economic challenges, including high unemployment and inequality. Mpumalanga Province, which hosts the majority of coal plants and mines, is central to the country’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). The transition will require addressing plant and mine closures, air pollution, and economic diversification while supporting affected workers and communities.

Project objectives:

• Build linked energy-economic models with provincial disaggregation for Mpumalanga.
• Develop scenarios assessing coal phase-out, pollution control, and just transition policies.
• Quantify socio-economic impacts, including employment, income, and investment needs.
• Inform national policy processes like the NDC and JETP through granular analysis.
• Engage stakeholders at national and provincial levels to support inclusive transition planning.

Project outputs:

• A provincial Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and spatial CGE model linked to SATIM.
• Scenario analysis comparing high-carbon and just transition pathways.
• Assessment of workforce impacts and economic diversification opportunities.
• Policy briefs and engagement materials for government and stakeholders.