Net zero CO2 emission pathways for South Africa

Background:

A research project undertaken by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in collaboration with the Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG), exploring potential energy and sectoral mitigation pathways, and their co-benefits, through which South Africa could reach net zero CO2 emissions domestically by mid-century. 
UCT ESRG were subcontracted by the CSIR to perform modelling work and analysis for the PCC on potential energy and sector pathways for the South African economy to reach net zero CO2 by 2050 or 2055. ESRG used the SATIMGE modelling framework, i.e. SATIM, the South African TIMES energy model (full-sector, single-node, ‘representative day’ resolution), linked with eSAGE,  South African CGE model based on National Treasury social accounting matrix. 

Project objectives:

• Provide a clear definition of “net zero” pathways consistent with the latest science and international climate agreements (incl. Paris Agreement and subsequent UNFCCC decisions and guidance)
• Develop and characterise long-term emission pathways for South Africa to reach net zero CO2 emissions by or around mid-century (2050 or 2055), in terms of the timing and shifts of energy supply technologies and end-use consumption in key demand sectors
• Characterise potential socio-economic impacts and effects of a net zero transition, as well as potential risks that would influence South African policymaking and decision making on the just energy transition towards net zero
• Explore the extent to which existing or future policies and measures could mitigate some of the negative socio-economic effects of such implementation and maximise uptake of key opportunities and benefits;

Project outputs:

See final report here